On the subject of John McCain's running-mate, and Mike Huckabee's deciscion to remain in the race, despite overwhelming odds...
First, Mike is very smart to continue his campaign until McCain wins the required number of delegates for two reasons...
1.) He's still raising money. After the Super Tuesday win and Romney's resignation from the race, Huck raised $1M in one week. Which is a lot for him.
2.) There is a very slim chance that McCain might not get the required number of nominees by the convention, in which case genuine conservatives might have a chance to challenge him. It won't be as big of a fight like the dems are going to have if they don't have a nominee by convention, but it could still be exciting. Mike said "I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles".
Now, the realistic election picture (you know how you fill out two NCAA brackets? One that you would like to happen and one that is most likely to happen (and, thus, the one you enter into the office pool)?
Well, here is my entry, if I were a betting man:
McCain will be our nominee, but it will only be sewn up right before the convention. Huckabee will keep going until then.
Obama will win the Democrat nominee, and take the Presidency in the general election.
McCain is old and does not have the "rock star" appeal with the increasingly more shallow electorate. Obama has a brand, an attractiveness, and is interesting.
McCain is old, not liked by the base of the party, and (let's be honest) he talks funny. McCain will not pick Huckabee as his running mate. While Huck has run a respectful campaign, if he wanted the VP, he could (and probably should) have backed out a while ago. McCain has plenty of DC insiders that can fill whatever Huckabee's contribution of strengths are (namely Southern, Christian).
Two wrenches: 1.) Hillary. She won't let this go. Never rule out the Clintons. They'll find a way to reverse the inevitable. In which case, they will not "let" Obama win. This may happen at convention.
2.) Mike. This is an incredibly long shot. But the more dissatisfaction that Conservatives have w/ McCain, the more likely it is.
So, what is Mike's future?
Best Picture for Mike? (aside from an outright win)
McCain doesn't pick him. McCain loses the General to Obama. Obama is a disaster. Huckabee enters in 2012, no longer a dark horse without money, but instead a well-known, well-liked, well-respected, and well-funded (from having four years to solidify himself as leader of the Conservative movement and thereby raise tons of cash).
Second best picture? McCain does pick him. Huckabee's "huckiness" offsets Obama's B.O. (Barack Obama-ness) and eaks out a W2000-style squeaker. McCain is old, and angry and...well, let's just say that it's good to be second in line...
Hey, it's worked for Mike before! Finish out McCain's first term and have two of his own.
Why don't I think Mike would be a good pick for Veep? Because he really needs to solidify his reputation as a genuine Conservative, and an association with McCain will not only damage that, it will lose the respect of the Conservative heavy hitters. Then they'll continue to pound him. If he loses his Presidential bid, doesn't associate w/ McCain, then McCain loses and Huck takes the driver's seat in the movement and earns the respect of the powers that be. Then he'd be in a much better position having then defined himself by his own reputation, rather than letting others define him by association.
